6月6日，世界銀行發(fā)布了最新一期《全球經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》，預(yù)計(jì)全球增長(zhǎng)將從2022年的3.1%放緩至2023年的2.1%。在中國(guó)以外的新興市場(chǎng)和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體，增長(zhǎng)率將從去年的4.1%下降至今年的2.9%。該報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)今年增長(zhǎng)5.6%，這與世行一月份的預(yù)測(cè)相比，調(diào)高了1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。

The World Bank has predicted that China's economy will grow at 5.6 percent this year, up by 1.3 percentage points from its January forecast, while it has revised down projections for most economies, as it sees global growth on a precarious footing amid high interest rates.
世界銀行預(yù)測(cè)2023年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長(zhǎng)5.6%，較1月預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)1.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同時(shí)下調(diào)了對(duì)大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)體增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期，該機(jī)構(gòu)認(rèn)為在利率上升的背景下全球增長(zhǎng)受到影響。

This prospect for China is more optimistic than that outlined by the International Monetary Fund in April in its World Economic Outlook, which forecast the country's growth to stay at 5.2 percent this year, when the world is embarking on a rocky economic recovery road.
這一預(yù)期較國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）4月份發(fā)布的《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望報(bào)告》對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)更樂觀，在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)艱難復(fù)蘇的背景下，IMF預(yù)測(cè)2023年中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速為5.2%。

In its Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, the World Bank said that economic activity in China bounced back in early 2023, spurred by the country's optimized COVID-19 response measures, which drove consumer spending, particularly on domestic services.
世界銀行在6日發(fā)布的報(bào)告稱，今年初，隨著中國(guó)優(yōu)化疫情防控措施，消費(fèi)需求得到釋放，尤其是國(guó)內(nèi)服務(wù)業(yè)，推動(dòng)了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)。

China has set a target of around 5 percent for its GDP growth this year. It posted a growth rate of 4.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, a significant improvement from the 2.9 percent in the last quarter of 2022, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
中國(guó)今年設(shè)定了5%左右的GDP增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)。國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示，一季度GDP同比增長(zhǎng)4.5%，較2022年第四季度2.9%的增速有明顯提高。

Global growth is projected to decelerate from 3.1 percent in 2022 to 2.1 percent in 2023, according to the World Bank report.
世行報(bào)告稱，預(yù)計(jì)全球增長(zhǎng)將從2022年的3.1%放緩至2023年的2.1%。

This forecast is up by 0.4 percentage points compared with the global lender's January report, as activity in major advanced economies and some emerging markets and developing economies, or EMDEs, did not slow down as much as expected at the turn of the year.
這一預(yù)測(cè)較1月預(yù)測(cè)上調(diào)0.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，世行認(rèn)為，主要發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體和一些新興市場(chǎng)和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的活動(dòng)并沒有像年初預(yù)期的那樣放緩。

"Notably, the rapid reopening of China's economy contributed materially to an upward revision to this year's growth forecast," it said.
報(bào)告稱：“值得注意的是，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勁復(fù)蘇是上調(diào)今年全球增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期的主要原因。“

On the upside, a more vigorous consumption recovery could support growth for longer than expected in China, where inflation is expected to remain below target, allowing monetary policy to remain mildly accommodative, according to the report.
報(bào)告稱，中國(guó)更強(qiáng)勁的消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的支持時(shí)間可能長(zhǎng)于預(yù)期，并且預(yù)計(jì)中國(guó)通脹仍將低于目標(biāo)水平，從而使貨幣政策保持寬松。

The World Bank said the key downside risks for China's economy include continuing stress in the real estate sector, a sharper-than-anticipated slowdown in global growth and trade, and the lingering possibility of disruptive COVID-19 waves.

世界銀行表示，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的主要下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的持續(xù)壓力、全球增長(zhǎng)和貿(mào)易放緩幅度超出預(yù)期，以及破壞性 COVID-19 浪潮揮之不去的可能性。

In advanced economies, growth is set to contract from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 0.7 percent this year, and remain weak in 2024, the report said.
報(bào)告表示，發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的增長(zhǎng)速度將從2022年的2.6%收縮至今年的0.7%，并在2024年保持疲軟。

The United States' economic growth is poised to decelerate to 0.8 percent in 2024 after growing 1.1 percent in 2023, mainly because of the lingering impact of the sharp rise in interest rates over the past year and a half, the World Bank said in a release.
世界銀行認(rèn)為，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)計(jì)今年增長(zhǎng)1.1%，明年放緩至0.8%。主要是因?yàn)檫^去一年半利率大幅上升的影響揮之不去。

As for the EMDEs, the World Bank noted that although most of them have seen only limited harm from the recent banking stress in advanced economies, they are now sailing in dangerous waters.
世界銀行指出，雖然近來發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的銀行業(yè)困境給大多數(shù)新興市場(chǎng)和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體造成的危害較為有限，但形勢(shì)也具有一定危險(xiǎn)性。

With increasingly restrictive global credit conditions, one out of every four EMDEs has lost access to international bond markets, and growth projections for these economies for 2023 are less than half of those made a year ago, making them highly vulnerable to additional shocks.
隨著全球信貸條件日趨收緊，新興市場(chǎng)和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體當(dāng)中有四分之一實(shí)際已無法通過國(guó)際債券市場(chǎng)融資。這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體2023年的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期不到一年前預(yù)測(cè)水平的一半，這使它們極易受到額外沖擊的影響。

Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group's chief economist and senior vice-president for development economics, said that in 2023, trade will grow at less than a third of its pace in the years before the pandemic, and that in the EMDEs, debt pressures are growing due to higher interest rates.
世界銀行集團(tuán)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家兼發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)高級(jí)副行長(zhǎng)英德米特·吉爾表示，2023年的貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)速度將不及疫情到來之前的三分之一。在新興市場(chǎng)和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體，利率上升正導(dǎo)致債務(wù)壓力增大。

來源：中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)
編輯：董靜，李蕙帆（實(shí)習(xí)）